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From Jackson Hole to Frankfurt. Twenty days to the new ECB rate cut

22/08/2024 07:36

Euroeconomie

Euroeconomies, Macros/Scenarios, Bce, francoforte, Federal Reserve, Fed, Consiglio direttivo della Bce, Christine Lagarde, tassi di interesse, politica monetaria europea, Ecb, Frankfurt, ECB cuts, interest rates, european monetary plitics, agosto 2024, settembre 2024, Philip Lane, Jackson Hole, politique monetarie de la BCE,

From Jackson Hole to Frankfurt. Twenty days to the new ECB rate cut

Between now and September 12 the ECB has planned some preparatory stages..Venti giorni di attività della BCE fino al taglio dei tassi del 12 settembre

EN - From August 22 to September 12, the date of the first expected rate cut since last July, the ECB has planned some preparatory stages with the release of data and communications from the board of directors.
The data on wage growth for the second quarter will be released on Thursday, August 22, together with the publication of the last minutes of the July meeting of the ECB. The preliminary reading of the August PMI indices for services and manufacturing in the euro area is also scheduled for Thursday, August 22 (final data on September 4). The following day, Friday, August 23, the ECB will publish its one-year and three-year inflation expectations.
At the Central Banks Symposium in Jackson Hole in the USA on Saturday, August 24, Philip Lane will speak for the ECB. An important appointment considering the expected speech at the symposium by Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve.
Speeches and public interventions by Knot, Nagel and Schnabel are scheduled between August 27 and 30.
Of particular importance for the final rate decision is the ECB's preliminary reading of eurozone inflation on Friday, August 30. Another important test is scheduled for September 5 with data on retail sales and therefore on the trend of consumption in the eurozone.
The activities scheduled in the twenty days that separate the Eurotower meeting in Frankfurt will provide a more organic framework for evaluating Christine Lagarde's moves.

 

IT - Dal 22 agosto al 12 settembre, data del primo taglio previsto dei tassi da luglio scorso, la BCE ha in programma alcune tappe di avvicinamento con diffusione di dati e comunicazioni dei consiglieri del direttivo.
I dati sulla crescita dei salari del secondo trimestre saranno resi noti giovedì 22 agosto insieme alla pubblicazione degli ultimi verbali della riunione di luglio della Bce. Giovedì 22 prevista anche la lettura preliminare di agosto degli indici Pmi servizi e manifatturiero della zona euro (dato finale il 4 settembre). Il giorno successivo, venerdi 23 agosto, la Bce pubblicherà le aspettative d’inflazione a un anno e tre anni.
Al Simposio delle banche centrali a Jackson Hole negli USA sabato 24 agosto parlerà per BCE Philip Lane. Un appuntamento importante considerando l'atteso discorso al simposio di Jerome Powell della Federal Reserve.
Tra il 27 e il 30 agosto previsti discorsi e interventi pubblici di Knot, Nagel e Schnabel.
Di particolare importanza per la decisione definitiva sui tassi è la lettura preliminare BCE dell’inflazione della zona euro di venerdì 30 agosto. Altro test importante è in agenda per il 5 settembre con i dati sulle vendite al dettaglio e quindi sull'andamento dei consumi nell'eurozona.
Le attività in agenda nei venti giorni che ci separano dalla riunione dell'Eurotower a Francoforte forniranno un quadro più organico per valutare le mosse di Christine Lagarde.  

 

Antonio de Chiara @euroeconomie.it


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